Euro 2008: Sarà Deciso in Scozia
October 15, 2007 3:10 amDespite the fact that the Italy, France and Scotland have played ten matches each, the question of who will occupy the two Group B qualifying spots is unanswerable, unless of course you happen to have a DeLorean equipped with a flux capacitor.
So, in an effort to sort things out a bit (yeah, right) here’s a rundown of the remaining matches featuring the aforementioned three teams, along with some commentary/impact scenarios on each:
(First, I should probably mention that as of now, Scotland is in front with 24 points, while Italy are a point behind them with 23 points, and France are on the Azzurri’s heels with 22 points.)
October 17
Georgia hosts Scotland – People seem to think that Georgia can play the role of spoiler here. As much as I’d like to join them in that belief (since a Georgia win would help our Azzurri immensely), I think they’re wrong. Although Scotland’s two losses were both away matches (against Ukraine and Italy, in case you’re wondering), the Scots defeated Georgia by a goal in Scotland back in March (not exactly convincing, I admit, but a win nonetheless), and here, more is at stake. If Scotland doesn’t win this match, and Italy and France both win their next matches, Scotland stays home. Mark my words: they’re going to step it up for this one.
France hosts Lithuania – Barring an upset of epic OMGWTF-inspiring proportions, France will win, and convincingly at that.
November 17
Scotland hosts Italy – This is shaping up to be the match that will decide Group B. Even if Scotland beats Georgia, a loss to Italy could still be a death sentence, assuming Italy seals the deal with Faroe Islands and France also wins twice. In that scenario, Scotland would finish with only 27 points, while Italy would win the group with 29, and France would snatch up the second spot with 28. Now… if Italy loses this one, the Azzurri can only finish with a maximum of 26 points, while Scotland would go through with at least 28, even if they loseWeight Exercise to Georgia. In that situation, France could qualify with two wins (leaving them with 28 points)… or loseWeight Exercise everything if they manage only one win and a loss (which would give them 25 points). Let’s be honest though. France will probably win both of its matches. Damn.
November 21
Italy hosts Faroe Islands – If Italy doesn’t beat Faroe Islands soundly and/ they let “the carpenter” score again, well… maybe the Azzurri aren’t fit for the tournament. There. I said it.
Ukraine hosts France - Granted, Sheva can be nasty, but unless he can go absolutely goal-crazy and inspire his team to do the same, we’re looking at another three points for France, which (along with a win against Lithuania), would give them 28 points.
Bear in mind that what’s posted above doesn’t come close to covering all of the possible scenarios that exist. For instance, I didn’t take draws into account. Nonetheless, we can pretty safely assume that France is going to win both of its remaining matches (and subsequently end with 28 points). If that’s the case (and I think it is), the only way for our Azzurri to protect themselves from Les Bleus is to beat both Scotland and Faroe Islands; if our ragazzi can do that, they’re guaranteed a spot, with 29 points. If they don’t, we need to start praying for miracles.
Forza Azzurri!
Categories: Azzurri, Euro 2008
5 Comments »
5 Responses to “Euro 2008: Sarà Deciso in Scozia”
I really beg to differ on assuming France will pick up two dubyas. Lithuania is probably a quick 3, but playing in Ukraine is tough, and they outplayed the Azzurri over there. They did make the WC quarters last summer and France have shown themselves to be pretty fragile at times.
Other than that, yeah, worrisome times for sure. Not that I care about the Euros, more a pride thing.
Hi, Chris –
Good point about Ukraine reaching the quarters in ’06.
I know that nothing is set in stone; it’s true that Ukraine CAN beat France.
I’m just basing my comments on how France has been playing lately. (With the exception of the Scotland matches, they’ve been quite good.)
On top of that, I tend to be a pessimist when it comes to the Azzurri.
As for caring about Euro ’08, I just don’t want to hear the anti-Italian comments if the Azzurri don’t do well. People will point to a loss and say that it shows that the Azzurri are not deserving world champions (while they are, of course).
I’m just tired of rushing to the Azzurri’s defense every time the Italian-haters start with their comments. Ugh. I’m giving myself a headache just thinking about it.
Anyway, thank you for visiting my site and commenting!
Hey Vin,
Thanks for trying to figure out most of those scenarios. I’ve been a nervous wreck with all these stupid qualifiers that I can’t remember who played who, who won what or anything like that. I really believe that Italy can beat Scotland and I think that France will win over the Ukraine. I would rather France not make it at all though.
I know what you mean about jumping to the defense of your teams. I’m Portuguese and I went through hell listening to all the anti Portuguese comments after the WC.
Same thing with all the cheating/diving Italians comments…it gets so frustrating after awhile.
Hi Michelle,
There’s a thread over on bigsoccer that does a better job of analyzing the situation.
http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=296641&page=42
One poster actually uses math, whereas I’m totally inept when it comes to numbers.
As for anti-Portuguese comments after the World Cup, those bothered me as well, as the Portuguese were often grouped together with the Italians as divers/cheaters. (Plus, I like Portuguese people, because here in NJ, the Italian-Americans have always gotten along really well with the Portuguese-Americans. One of the weddings I went to this weekend was a Portuguese wedding, actually.)
Anyway, I’m not going to mention any countries specifically lest someone get offended, but OTHER countries… perhaps a certain South American country specifically, can have it’s players going down just as much, and nobody says a thing. Meanwhile, other teams can get away with clear fouls, like when a certain lanky striker from a European powerhouse nearly pulled the hair off of a player’s head to hold him down, and the resulting goal was never even questioned.
Thank you for that thread. The whole numbers thing really confuses me as well. My sister is the one who tried out every possible scenario before Sweden’s last game in the first round of the WC to see if they would move on to the next round, which, thankfully they did. Ibra (I know, I know)is one of my favorite players so I root for Sweden as well.
Yes, it did seem that Italy and Portugal were labeled the worst of the lot (especially after the Australia and England games). And yes, there are a couple of players on each team who might fall over a bit too easily but it was sooo annoying to hear both teams lumped in that category. Lots of teams have players who dive, it’s funny that we don’t hear about it as much.